← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Feb 21, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Carvalho
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 40% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 32% | 2.85 |
| FC Alverca win | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Alverca +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| CD Santa Clara +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (pen) | Marko Milovanović · FC Alverca |
| 14' | 🟨 | Vinícius Lopes · CD Santa Clara |
| 35' | 🟨 | Frederico Venâncio · CD Santa Clara |
| 61' | 🟨 | Kaiky Naves · FC Alverca |
| 76' | ⚽ | Luis Fernando · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Steven Baseya · FC Alverca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 16 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Alverca | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | FC Alverca Sports Complex |
| coach days | 204.00 | 966.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1452.78 | 1495.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.90 | -42.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | -0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | — |
| league points | 25.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 7.78 | 7.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | 0.10 |
| solidity v1 | -0.98 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 25.44 | 29.46 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.02 |