← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Fri, Feb 20, 08:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Correia
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 35% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.85 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 33% | 2.85 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela +0 | 52% | 1.85 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora +0 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over | 39% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Cicero · CD Tondela |
| 4' | ⚽ (pen) | Bebeto · CD Tondela |
| 41' | 🟨 | Eddy Doue · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 61' | 🟨 | Paulo Moreira · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 62' | 🟨 | Joe Hodge · CD Tondela |
| 69' | 🟨 | Siphephelo Sithole · CD Tondela |
| 75' | ⚽ | Maranhão · CD Tondela |
| 87' | 🟨 | Brayan Medina · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟥 | Luan Patrick · CF Estrela da Amadora |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CF Estrela da Amadora | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio José Gomes |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 234.00 | 234.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 3.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1468.38 | 1415.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.44 | 6.07 |
| eye test v1 | -1.03 | -0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.40 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| league points | 23.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 6.11 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 0.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | -0.98 |
| solidity v1 | -1.45 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.35 | 25.76 |
| state index | -0.76 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.04 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.99 |