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Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3–0 AVS

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Feb 21, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Fonseca

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sport Lisboa e Benfica win85%1.09
Draw10%9.50
AVS win5%19.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AVS −2.551%1.88
Sport Lisboa e Benfica −2.549%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over70%1.36
Under30%3.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Alexander Bah · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
30'⚽Enzo Barrenechea · Sport Lisboa e Benfica
43'⚽Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
22Shots3
9On target0
10Corners1
7Fouls14
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSport Lisboa e BenficaAVS
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.650.53
cards avg (last 5)1.002.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio da Luz
coach days
235.00
204.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.09
corner diff avg (last 5)4.800.00
corners against avg (last 5)2.805.00
corners for avg (last 5)7.605.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.914.03
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.20
dominance (last 5)0.740.50
elo1865.971363.52
elo momentum (last 5)2.4115.85
eye test v11.40-0.41
eye trend v1-0.52-0.32
first sub minute (last 10)69.5053.90
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.521.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.10
keeper form v1—0.52
league points52.008.00
league rank3.0018.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8068.00
possession avg (last 5)52.6038.20
rest days3.926.00
scorer concentration0.370.19
season ppg2.360.36
shot diff avg (last 5)13.801.20
shots for avg (last 5)20.4013.80
skill v10.58-1.28
solidity v10.85-0.59
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)6.503.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)7.403.40
squad age26.3626.08
state index1.32-0.65
sterile dominance v1-0.75-1.79
threat rate (last 10)0.350.33
threat rate (last 3)0.310.32
threat rate (last 5)0.380.35
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.20
xg against avg (last 5)0.851.60
xg for avg (last 5)1.781.15