← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Feb 15, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Bessa
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 67% | 1.39 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.75 |
| CD Nacional win | 13% | 7.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional +1.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| FC Porto +1.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.83 |
| Under | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Francisco Gonçalves · CD Nacional |
| 60' | ⚽ | Jan Bednarek · FC Porto |
| 84' | 🟨 | Liziero · CD Nacional |
| 87' | 🟨 | Kaique · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lenny Vallier · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| coach days | 960.00 | 259.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1467.51 | 1856.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.22 | -8.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| league points | 21.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.78 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 1.10 |
| solidity v1 | 0.07 | 1.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.51 | 26.25 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 0.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.83 |