← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Feb 15, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: L. M. Branco Godinho
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 54% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.80 |
| AVS win | 22% | 4.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AVS +0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| GD Estoril Praia +0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Gustavo Mendonca · AVS |
| 43' | 🟨 | Leonardo Rivas · AVS |
| 54' | ⚽ | Diego Duarte · AVS |
| 75' | ⚽ | Tomané · AVS |
| 81' | 🟨 | Rafik Guitane · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ferro · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ángel Algobia · AVS |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 9 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AVS | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves |
| coach days | 198.00 | 594.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1340.68 | 1606.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.30 | 38.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.48 | — |
| league points | 5.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 5.97 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.24 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.12 | 0.91 |
| solidity v1 | -1.09 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.01 | 27.89 |
| state index | -1.84 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.13 | 1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.49 |