← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Feb 15, 08:30 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 71% | 1.30 |
| Draw | 19% | 4.75 |
| FC Famalicão win | 10% | 9.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Famalicão −1.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Sporting Clube de Portugal −1.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 2 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 14 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 2 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |