← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Feb 14, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Rosa
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 39% | 2.35 |
| Casa Pia AC win | 32% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca +0 | 55% | 1.70 |
| Casa Pia AC +0 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Javi Sánchez · FC Arouca |
| 10' | 🟨 | David Sousa · Casa Pia AC |
| 11' | ⚽ | Ivan Barbero · FC Arouca |
| 21' | ⚽ | Rafael Brito · Casa Pia AC |
| 25' | ⚽ | Cassiano · Casa Pia AC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Gaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia AC |
| 37' | ⚽ (og) | Abdu Conté · FC Arouca |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Cassiano · Casa Pia AC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Domingos Jose Gabriel Bandeira · Casa Pia AC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Cassiano · Casa Pia AC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ignacio de Arruabarrena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 21 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Casa Pia AC | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior |
| 83' | 🟨 | Joao Marques · Casa Pia AC |
| coach days | 197.00 | 501.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1496.90 | 1518.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.11 | 22.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| league points | 19.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | 0.31 |
| solidity v1 | -1.49 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.58 | 24.54 |
| state index | -0.40 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.19 | 0.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.00 |