← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Fri, Feb 13, 08:45 PM UTC · ref: P. Ramalho
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 36% | 2.57 |
| FC Alverca win | 33% | 2.82 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela +0 | 53% | 1.80 |
| FC Alverca +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Chiquinho · FC Alverca |
| 4' | ⚽ | Marko Milovanović · FC Alverca |
| 43' | 🟨 | Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka · CD Tondela |
| 44' | 🟨 | Nabil Touaizi · FC Alverca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bastien Meupiyou · FC Alverca |
| 60' | 🟨 | Makan Aïko · CD Tondela |
| 67' | 🟨 | Bastien Meupiyou · FC Alverca |
| 67' | 🟥 | Bastien Meupiyou · FC Alverca |
| 70' | 🟨 | André Gomes · FC Alverca |
| 80' | ⚽ | João Silva · CD Tondela |
| 87' | 🟨 | Cicero |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | FC Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bernardo Fontes · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Conceição · CD Tondela |
| coach days | 227.00 | 196.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1414.80 | 1502.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.84 | 12.22 |
| eye test v1 | -1.12 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.80 |
| league points | 14.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.00 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 6.11 | 5.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.30 | -0.20 |
| solidity v1 | 0.12 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.53 | 24.75 |
| state index | -0.89 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 1.36 |