← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Feb 7, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Torres
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 55% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.90 |
| CD Tondela win | 21% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela −0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| GD Estoril Praia −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Maranhão · CD Tondela |
| 16' | ⚽ | Maranhão · CD Tondela |
| 26' | ⚽ | João Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 29' | ⚽ | Ferro · GD Estoril Praia |
| 84' | 🟨 | Antef Tsoungui · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| coach days | 586.00 | 221.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1612.61 | 1416.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 53.80 | 11.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | -1.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| league points | 29.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 33.40 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 5.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 0.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 5.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | -1.48 |
| solidity v1 | -0.24 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 1.60 |
| squad age | 27.60 | 26.61 |
| state index | 1.01 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 0.64 |