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Moreirense FC 1–2 Gil Vicente FC

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Feb 7, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Silva

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gil Vicente FC win44%2.10
Draw31%3.00
Moreirense FC win25%3.75

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gil Vicente FC +0.2553%1.83
Moreirense FC +0.2547%2.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.50
Over38%2.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

37'🟨Ghislain Konan · Gil Vicente FC
39'🟨Maracás · Moreirense FC
40'🟥Álvaro Martínez · Moreirense FC
43'⚽ (pen)Murilo Souza · Gil Vicente FC
59'🟨Dinis Pinto · Moreirense FC
59'🟨Yan Maranhão · Moreirense FC
67'⚽Diogo Travassos · Moreirense FC
88'⚽Héctor Hernández · Gil Vicente FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
3Shots15
1On target4
3Corners6
18Fouls15
3Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMoreirense FCGil Vicente FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.520.51
cards avg (last 5)2.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueParque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
2.40
coach days221.00343.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.605.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.813.09
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.12
dominance (last 5)0.420.61
elo1565.921596.71
elo momentum (last 5)2.6326.36
eye test v1-0.330.69
eye trend v1-0.410.36
first sub minute (last 10)58.5063.10
form points (last 5)9.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.45
keeper form v10.59—
league points30.0034.00
league rank6.005.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.8081.00
possession avg (last 5)55.4052.00
rest days7.786.00
scorer concentration0.290.32
season ppg1.501.70
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.605.20
shots for avg (last 5)8.4016.00
skill v10.390.42
solidity v11.290.50
sot against avg (last 5)2.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.805.60
squad age26.8526.50
state index0.120.47
sterile dominance v11.12-0.32
threat rate (last 10)0.180.27
threat rate (last 3)0.120.29
threat rate (last 5)0.170.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80
xg against avg (last 5)0.871.12
xg for avg (last 5)1.011.56