← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Feb 8, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Correia
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 54% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
| Casa Pia AC win | 19% | 4.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional −0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Casa Pia AC −0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 64' | 🟨 | Domingos Jose Gabriel Bandeira · Casa Pia AC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Iyad Mohamed · Casa Pia AC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Léo Santos · CD Nacional |
| 85' | 🟨 | Miguel Baeza · CD Nacional |
| 86' | 🟨 | André Geraldes · Casa Pia AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Casa Pia AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| coach days | 953.00 | 191.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1468.44 | 1495.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.75 | 0.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| league points | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 5.78 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | -1.02 |
| solidity v1 | -0.72 | -1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.28 | 26.66 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 2.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 1.17 |