← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Jan 31, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Bessa
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Alverca win | 50% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.25 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 21% | 4.33 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| FC Alverca −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over | 39% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Paulo Moreira · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 64' | 🟨 | Yahya Kalley · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 66' | 🟨 | Vasco Moreira · FC Alverca |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Sydney van Hooijdonk · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 87' | ⚽ | Fabrício Garcia · FC Alverca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Alverca | CF Estrela da Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | FC Alverca Sports Complex |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 183.00 | 214.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1507.11 | 1461.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.33 | 1.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 50.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| league points | 23.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | -0.96 |
| solidity v1 | -0.83 | -2.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.68 | 26.59 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 2.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 0.61 |