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Gil Vicente FC 5–0 FC Famalicão

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Feb 1, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Rodrigues

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gil Vicente FC win36%2.57
FC Famalicão win35%2.65
Draw30%3.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gil Vicente FC +051%1.90
FC Famalicão +049%1.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.60
Over41%2.30

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Marvin Elimbi · Gil Vicente FC
42'🟥Mathias De Amorim · FC Famalicão
44'⚽ (pen)Murilo Souza · Gil Vicente FC
53'⚽Jonathan Buatu · Gil Vicente FC
80'⚽Gustavo Varela · Gil Vicente FC
82'🟨Umar Abubakar · FC Famalicão
84'⚽Gustavo Varela · Gil Vicente FC
90'⚽Santi García · Gil Vicente FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
17Shots4
9On target0
3Corners1
19Fouls10
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGil Vicente FCFC Famalicão
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.500.62
cards avg (last 5)2.801.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio Cidade de Barcelos
coach days337.00427.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.60-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)7.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.242.87
defensive leak (last 5)0.250.14
dominance (last 5)0.620.56
elo1578.001615.57
elo momentum (last 5)4.46-14.47
eye test v10.02-0.33
eye trend v10.12-0.35
first sub minute (last 10)62.5063.30
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
keeper form v1—0.74
league points31.0029.00
league rank5.007.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4084.00
possession avg (last 5)54.2054.40
rest days5.806.90
scorer concentration0.380.20
season ppg1.631.53
shot diff avg (last 5)6.602.80
shots for avg (last 5)17.2011.20
skill v10.180.49
solidity v10.300.86
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.20
squad age26.8324.35
state index0.140.24
sterile dominance v1-0.050.88
threat rate (last 10)0.280.24
threat rate (last 3)0.290.18
threat rate (last 5)0.290.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.141.00
xg for avg (last 5)1.191.20