← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Jan 31, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Guelho
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 40% | 2.30 |
| Rio Ave FC win | 32% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Arouca +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Espen Van Ee · FC Arouca |
| 44' | ⚽ | Tiago Esgaio · FC Arouca |
| 52' | 🟨 | Francisco Petrasso · Rio Ave FC |
| 54' | ⚽ | Ivan Barbero · FC Arouca |
| 66' | ⚽ | Hyun-ju Lee · FC Arouca |
| 82' | 🟨 | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 18 |
| 0 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |
| coach days |
| 183.00 |
| 487.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.71 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1506.71 | 1485.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.21 | -7.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 49.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -12.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | 0.52 |
| solidity v1 | -1.13 | 0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.76 | 23.56 |
| state index | -0.73 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | 0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 0.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.04 |