← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Jan 25, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: I. Vasilica
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 50% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
| Rio Ave FC win | 24% | 3.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Rio Ave FC −0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Gabriel Veron · CD Nacional |
| 46' | ⚽ | Jesús Ramírez · CD Nacional |
| 52' | 🟨 | Léo Santos · CD Nacional |
| 72' | ⚽ | Léo Santos · CD Nacional |
| 85' | 🟨 | Ze Vitor · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Gomes · CD Nacional |
| 90' | ⚽ | Witi · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| coach days |
| 939.00 |
| 177.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 3.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.26 |
| elo | 1449.61 | 1526.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.84 | -1.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| league points | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -13.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | 0.43 |
| solidity v1 | -1.00 | -0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.63 | 24.99 |
| state index | -0.35 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.10 | 1.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.53 |