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Moreirense FC 1–0 CD Santa Clara

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Jan 24, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Pinheiro

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CD Santa Clara win37%2.50
Draw32%2.85
Moreirense FC win31%3.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CD Santa Clara +054%1.78
Moreirense FC +046%2.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under70%1.36
Over30%3.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Mateja Stjepanović · Moreirense FC
34'🟨Maracás · Moreirense FC
68'🟨Vinícius Lopes · CD Santa Clara
87'⚽Maracás · Moreirense FC
90'🟨Luís Rocha · CD Santa Clara

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
3Shots9
1On target1
5Corners5
13Fouls22
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMoreirense FCCD Santa Clara
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.11
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.560.49
cards avg (last 5)1.602.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueParque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
coach days207.00938.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.03
corner diff avg (last 5)0.800.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.004.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.963.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.13
dominance (last 5)0.500.58
elo1566.321521.37
elo momentum (last 5)-6.35-19.84
eye test v1-0.19-0.61
eye trend v1-0.09-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)58.6065.50
form points (last 5)7.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
league points27.0017.00
league rank6.0015.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.2080.20
possession avg (last 5)56.2046.40
rest days6.906.00
scorer concentration0.300.50
season ppg1.500.94
shot diff avg (last 5)0.004.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.0012.60
skill v10.55-0.25
solidity v10.690.51
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.002.80
squad age26.9430.59
state index-0.03-0.48
sterile dominance v11.02-0.19
threat rate (last 10)0.200.26
threat rate (last 3)0.160.33
threat rate (last 5)0.200.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.001.12
xg for avg (last 5)1.060.98