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FC Porto 3–0 Gil Vicente FC

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Mon, Jan 26, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: A. Nobre

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Porto win70%1.33
Draw21%4.50
Gil Vicente FC win10%9.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Porto −1.2551%1.88
Gil Vicente FC −1.2549%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.88
Over49%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

35'🟨Murilo Souza · Gil Vicente FC
36'🟨Gabri Veiga · FC Porto
36'🟨Zé Carlos · Gil Vicente FC
37'⚽ (pen)Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto
69'🟥Martin Fernández · Gil Vicente FC
75'⚽Martim Fernandes · FC Porto
86'⚽William Gomes · FC Porto
90'🟨Jakub Kiwior · FC Porto

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots11
6On target5
11Corners3
13Fouls8
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC PortoGil Vicente FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.700.49
cards avg (last 5)1.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio Do Dragão
coach days239.00331.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.09
corner diff avg (last 5)1.804.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.803.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.608.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.223.13
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.27
dominance (last 5)0.580.69
elo1862.221582.34
elo momentum (last 5)13.217.95
eye test v10.97-0.16
eye trend v1-0.290.05
first sub minute (last 10)46.9060.30
form points (last 5)13.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.17
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.650.40
keeper form v10.730.60
league points52.0031.00
league rank1.005.00
matches since blank14.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.6080.80
possession avg (last 5)64.2058.80
rest days4.109.20
scorer concentration0.220.38
season ppg2.891.72
shot diff avg (last 5)3.808.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.4017.20
skill v11.560.46
solidity v12.110.88
sot against avg (last 5)1.802.80
sot for avg (last 10)6.104.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.60
squad age24.1226.66
state index1.500.36
sterile dominance v11.110.29
threat rate (last 10)0.240.28
threat rate (last 3)0.230.35
threat rate (last 5)0.240.29
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.40
xg against avg (last 5)0.360.92
xg for avg (last 5)2.011.18