← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Fri, Jan 23, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: R. Baixinho
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC win | 46% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.10 |
| AVS win | 24% | 3.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AVS −0.5 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Casa Pia AC −0.5 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over | 40% | 2.35 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | David Sousa · Casa Pia AC |
| 13' | 🟨 | Roni · AVS |
| 30' | 🟨 | Rúben Semedo · AVS |
| 44' | 🟨 | Pedro Lima · AVS |
| 50' | ⚽ | Gaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia AC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Cassiano · Casa Pia AC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Oluwakorede Osundina · Casa Pia AC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Leonardo Rivas · AVS |
| 74' | 🟨 | Abdu Conté · Casa Pia AC |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Nenê · AVS |
| 81' | 🟨 | Kiki Afonso |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 27 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 11 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Casa Pia AC | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior |
| 88' | 🟨 | João Goulart · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Nenê · AVS |
| 90' | ⚽ | Guilherme Neiva · AVS |
| coach days | 175.00 | 175.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1489.76 | 1343.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.87 | -17.37 |
| eye test v1 | -1.07 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | — |
| league points | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 35.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 0.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -1.41 |
| solidity v1 | -0.52 | -1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.55 | 27.17 |
| state index | -0.55 | -1.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | -1.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.80 |