← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Jan 17, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Nogueira
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 54% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
| CD Nacional win | 19% | 5.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional −0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Gil Vicente FC −0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Facundo Cáseres · Gil Vicente FC |
| 19' | ⚽ | Murilo Souza · Gil Vicente FC |
| 22' | ⚽ | Ze Vitor · CD Nacional |
| 57' | ⚽ | Santi García · Gil Vicente FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Paulinho Bóia · CD Nacional |
| 70' | 🟨 | Matheus Dias · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Cidade de Barcelos |
| coach days | 322.00 | 931.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 1.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1577.15 | 1454.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.82 | -0.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.67 |
| league points | 28.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 14.86 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | -0.19 |
| solidity v1 | 0.68 | -1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.65 | 26.08 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 2.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.41 |