← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Jan 17, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Pinheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AVS win | 36% | 2.57 |
| FC Arouca win | 33% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AVS +0 | 52% | 1.85 |
| FC Arouca +0 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟥 | Cristian Castro · AVS |
| 10' | 🟨 | Espen Van Ee · FC Arouca |
| 11' | 🟨 | Gustavo Mendonca · AVS |
| 38' | 🟨 | Javi Sánchez · FC Arouca |
| 42' | ⚽ | Ivan Barbero · FC Arouca |
| 58' | 🟨 | Ivan Barbero · FC Arouca |
| 79' | 🟨 | Matías Rocha · FC Arouca |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jaume Grau · AVS |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ignacio de Arruabarrena · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rúben Semedo · AVS |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mateo Flores · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AVS | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves |
| coach days | 169.00 | 473.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1351.14 | 1486.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.72 | -20.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| league points | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.80 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 14.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 0.24 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.15 | 0.03 |
| solidity v1 | -1.53 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.01 | 25.79 |
| state index | -1.79 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.34 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.02 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 0.91 |