← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Jan 3, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Goncalves
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 40% | 2.44 |
| FC Arouca win | 30% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| CD Tondela −0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.70 |
| Over | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Alfonso Trezza · FC Arouca |
| 12' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Maviram · CD Tondela |
| 19' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Maviram · CD Tondela |
| 34' | ⚽ | Jordan Siebatcheu · CD Tondela |
| 52' | 🟨 | Cicero · CD Tondela |
| 57' | 🟨 | Tiago Manso · CD Tondela |
| 60' | ⚽ | Yefrei Rodriguez · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hyun-ju Lee · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days | 186.00 | 459.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1397.29 | 1496.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.18 | -11.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 49.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| league points | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 12.90 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -0.79 |
| solidity v1 | -0.10 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.11 | 25.46 |
| state index | -0.82 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 0.77 |