← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Jan 4, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Pereira
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 62% | 1.52 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 |
| CD Santa Clara win | 13% | 7.67 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara +1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| FC Porto +1 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.56 |
| Over | 38% | 2.53 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Jan Bednarek · FC Porto |
| 50' | ⚽ | Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto |
| 66' | 🟨 | Vinícius Lopes · CD Santa Clara |
| 77' | 🟨 | José Tavares · CD Santa Clara |
| 77' | 🟨 | Pablo Rosario · FC Porto |
| 78' | 🟨 | Alan Varela · FC Porto |
| 80' | 🟨 | Alberto Costa · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 0 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 20 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 0.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| coach days | 918.00 | 217.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 1.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1535.27 | 1855.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.15 | 14.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | 1.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 49.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | — |
| league points | 16.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 66.00 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 5.91 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 2.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | 1.93 |
| solidity v1 | 1.22 | 1.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 28.93 | 24.72 |
| state index | -0.03 | 1.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 2.31 |