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CD Santa Clara 0–1 FC Porto

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Jan 4, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Pereira

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Porto win62%1.52
Draw25%4.01
CD Santa Clara win13%7.67

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CD Santa Clara +152%1.88
FC Porto +148%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under62%1.56
Over38%2.53

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Jan Bednarek · FC Porto
50'⚽Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto
66'🟨Vinícius Lopes · CD Santa Clara
77'🟨José Tavares · CD Santa Clara
77'🟨Pablo Rosario · FC Porto
78'🟨Alan Varela · FC Porto
80'🟨Alberto Costa · FC Porto

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots8
0On target5
2Corners7
20Fouls22
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCD Santa ClaraFC Porto
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.570.79
cards avg (last 5)4.400.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio de São Miguel
coach days918.00217.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.403.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.801.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.781.89
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.03
dominance (last 5)0.470.63
elo1535.271855.99
elo momentum (last 5)0.1514.77
eye test v1-0.531.38
eye trend v1-0.27-0.39
first sub minute (last 10)64.2049.80
form points (last 5)5.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.202.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.65
keeper form v10.79—
league points16.0046.00
league rank14.001.00
matches since blank0.0011.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2087.00
possession avg (last 5)46.2066.00
rest days13.905.91
scorer concentration—0.19
season ppg1.072.88
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.006.40
shots for avg (last 5)7.8015.00
skill v1-0.321.93
solidity v11.221.80
sot against avg (last 5)2.802.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.206.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.406.60
squad age28.9324.72
state index-0.031.58
sterile dominance v10.221.11
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.200.26
threat rate (last 5)0.210.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.60
xg against avg (last 5)0.770.49
xg for avg (last 5)0.902.31