← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Jan 4, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Rosa
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 46% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.33 |
| FC Alverca win | 26% | 3.80 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Alverca +0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over | 44% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 57' | 🟨 | Figueiredo · FC Alverca |
| 73' | 🟨 | Rafa Soares · FC Famalicão |
| 74' | 🟨 | Lincoln · FC Alverca |
| 79' | 🟨 | Tom Van De Looi · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Chiquinho · FC Alverca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Alverca | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | FC Alverca Sports Complex |
| coach days | 156.00 | 399.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 3.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1490.36 | 1611.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.24 | -14.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 66.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| league points | 17.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 0.59 |
| solidity v1 | 0.45 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 24.61 | 24.98 |
| state index | -0.41 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.82 |