← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Jan 3, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fonseca
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 45% | 2.18 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.28 |
| AVS win | 26% | 3.71 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| AVS +0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.69 |
| Over | 42% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Diogo Travassos · Moreirense FC |
| 23' | 🟨 | Aderllan Santos · AVS |
| 46' | 🟨 | Cristian Castro · AVS |
| 50' | ⚽ | Guilherme Schettine · Moreirense FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Tomané · AVS |
| 60' | 🟨 | Dinis Pinto · Moreirense FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Caio · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nenê · AVS |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gustavo Assunção · AVS |
| 90' | 🟨 | Landerson · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 23 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AVS | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves |
| coach days | 155.00 | 186.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1356.70 | 1563.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.82 | -12.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| league points | 4.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 5.01 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | 0.33 |
| solidity v1 | -1.52 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.33 | 27.14 |
| state index | -1.85 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.28 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.04 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.21 |