← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Jan 11, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Verissimo
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 35% | 2.81 |
| CD Santa Clara win | 33% | 2.94 |
| Draw | 32% | 2.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional +0 | 51% | 1.91 |
| CD Santa Clara +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 1.49 |
| Over | 35% | 2.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Vinícius Lopes · CD Santa Clara |
| 6' | 🟨 | Léo Santos · CD Nacional |
| 15' | ⚽ | Paulo Victor · CD Santa Clara |
| 21' | ⚽ | Jesús Ramírez · CD Nacional |
| 24' | 🟨 | Sidney Lima · CD Santa Clara |
| 30' | 🟨 | Pablo Ruan · CD Nacional |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Jesús Ramírez · CD Nacional |
| 50' | ⚽ | Jesús Ramírez · CD Nacional |
| 52' | 🟨 | José Tavares · CD Santa Clara |
| 71' | 🟨 | Gustavo Klismahn · CD Santa Clara |
| 72' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 22 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 81' | 🟨 | Kaique · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luís Rocha · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | ⚽ | Elias Manoel · CD Santa Clara |
| coach days | 925.00 | 925.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1454.29 | 1531.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.01 | -1.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| league points | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 8.78 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | — |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | -0.66 |
| solidity v1 | -1.20 | 1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.43 | 29.91 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.30 | 0.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 0.84 |