← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Dec 27, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 45% | 2.18 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.47 |
| FC Alverca win | 27% | 3.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −0.25 | 53% | 1.88 |
| FC Alverca −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ (og) | Bastien Meupiyou · GD Estoril Praia |
| 43' | ⚽ | Yanis Begraoui · GD Estoril Praia |
| 47' | ⚽ | Yanis Begraoui · GD Estoril Praia |
| 49' | 🟨 | Lincoln · FC Alverca |
| 52' | 🟨 | Pedro Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 55' | 🟨 | Nabil Touaizi · FC Alverca |
| 60' | ⚽ (og) | Bastien Meupiyou · GD Estoril Praia |
| 67' | ⚽ | Alexsandro Amorim · FC Alverca |
| 86' | 🟨 | Julián Jose Martinez · FC Alverca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antef Tsoungui · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | FC Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| coach days | 544.00 | 148.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1549.62 | 1502.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.18 | 9.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| league points | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 8.01 | 5.07 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | -0.17 |
| solidity v1 | -1.45 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.59 | 23.76 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.93 | 0.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.22 |