← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Mon, Dec 29, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: B. J. Costa
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 86% | 1.11 |
| Draw | 10% | 10.19 |
| AVS win | 5% | 22.72 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AVS −2.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Porto −2.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 1.41 |
| Under | 33% | 2.88 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | ⚽ | Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto |
| 50' | 🟨 | Jaume Grau · AVS |
| 52' | 🟨 | William Gomes · FC Porto |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 8 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| 211.00 |
| 150.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1854.82 | 1357.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.97 | -8.21 |
| eye test v1 | 1.40 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.80 | 50.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.56 |
| league points | 43.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 7.06 | 8.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.87 | 0.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.59 | -0.72 |
| solidity v1 | 1.57 | -1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 23.86 | 26.70 |
| state index | 1.61 | -1.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | -0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.65 | 1.91 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.10 | 1.13 |