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FC Porto 2–0 AVS

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Mon, Dec 29, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: B. J. Costa

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Porto win86%1.11
Draw10%10.19
AVS win5%22.72

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AVS −2.553%1.83
FC Porto −2.547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over67%1.41
Under33%2.88

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

47'⚽Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto
50'🟨Jaume Grau · AVS
52'🟨William Gomes · FC Porto
64'⚽ (pen)Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
18Shots7
4On target1
7Corners0
8Fouls7
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC PortoAVS
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.800.63
cards avg (last 5)0.802.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio Do Dragão
coach days
211.00
150.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.06
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)2.006.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.803.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.892.72
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.18
dominance (last 5)0.630.41
elo1854.821357.86
elo momentum (last 5)15.97-8.21
eye test v11.400.03
eye trend v10.030.70
first sub minute (last 10)49.8050.70
form points (last 5)15.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.80-2.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.403.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.82
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.700.15
keeper form v10.780.56
league points43.004.00
league rank1.0018.00
matches since blank10.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.0016.00
matches since win0.0016.00
pass acc avg (last 5)87.0074.40
possession avg (last 5)61.6042.00
rest days7.068.20
scorer concentration0.200.18
season ppg2.870.27
shot diff avg (last 5)6.40-5.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.2011.40
skill v11.59-0.72
solidity v11.57-1.38
sot against avg (last 5)2.405.40
sot for avg (last 10)6.303.50
sot for avg (last 3)7.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)7.004.60
squad age23.8626.70
state index1.61-1.69
sterile dominance v10.89-0.96
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.300.36
threat rate (last 5)0.260.30
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.00
xg against avg (last 5)0.651.91
xg for avg (last 5)2.101.13