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FC Arouca 2–2 Gil Vicente FC

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Dec 28, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Jose Bessa, Portugal

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gil Vicente FC win49%1.93
Draw29%3.37
FC Arouca win21%4.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gil Vicente FC +0.550%1.94
FC Arouca +0.550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.63
Over40%2.36

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Hyun-ju Lee · FC Arouca
12'⚽Alfonso Trezza · FC Arouca
41'⚽Pablo Felipe · Gil Vicente FC
48'⚽Murilo Souza · Gil Vicente FC
57'🟨Omar Fayed · FC Arouca
77'🟨Pedro Santos · FC Arouca
80'🟨Facundo Cáseres · Gil Vicente FC
86'🟨Espen Van Ee · FC Arouca
90'🟨Boris Popović · FC Arouca
90'🟨Tiago Esgaio · FC Arouca
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
9Shots17
5On target5
4Corners8
13Fouls5
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC AroucaGil Vicente FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.18
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.420.52
cards avg (last 5)3.203.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio Municipal de Arouca
Mohamed Bamba
· Gil Vicente FC
coach days453.00302.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.204.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.602.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.407.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.313.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.25
dominance (last 5)0.400.64
elo1495.801570.36
elo momentum (last 5)-19.31-21.44
eye test v1-1.00-0.32
eye trend v10.30-0.48
first sub minute (last 10)49.1056.70
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.50
keeper form v10.650.79
league points13.0026.00
league rank16.004.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win1.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2083.00
possession avg (last 5)44.6056.00
rest days6.797.90
scorer concentration0.290.41
season ppg0.871.73
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.406.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.6013.40
skill v1-0.670.38
solidity v1-0.990.96
sot against avg (last 5)5.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.404.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.40
squad age25.3224.41
state index-0.59-0.24
sterile dominance v10.050.49
threat rate (last 10)0.200.28
threat rate (last 3)0.220.27
threat rate (last 5)0.210.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.720.80
xg for avg (last 5)0.661.02