← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Dec 28, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Jose Bessa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 49% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.37 |
| FC Arouca win | 21% | 4.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC +0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| FC Arouca +0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.63 |
| Over | 40% | 2.36 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Hyun-ju Lee · FC Arouca |
| 12' | ⚽ | Alfonso Trezza · FC Arouca |
| 41' | ⚽ | Pablo Felipe · Gil Vicente FC |
| 48' | ⚽ | Murilo Souza · Gil Vicente FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Omar Fayed · FC Arouca |
| 77' | 🟨 | Pedro Santos · FC Arouca |
| 80' | 🟨 | Facundo Cáseres · Gil Vicente FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Espen Van Ee · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Boris Popović · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tiago Esgaio · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 5 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| coach days | 453.00 | 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1495.80 | 1570.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.31 | -21.44 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.10 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.79 |
| league points | 13.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 6.79 | 7.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | 0.38 |
| solidity v1 | -0.99 | 0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.32 | 24.41 |
| state index | -0.59 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 0.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.66 | 1.02 |