← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Dec 21, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Vasilica Iancu, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 53% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.37 |
| FC Arouca win | 19% | 5.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Arouca −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.60 |
| Over | 39% | 2.44 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Tiago Esgaio · FC Arouca |
| 72' | 🟨 | Sidney Lima · CD Santa Clara |
| 80' | 🟨 | Serginho · CD Santa Clara |
| 82' | 🟨 | Miguel Puche · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| coach days | 904.00 | 446.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1538.22 | 1492.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.05 | -38.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.61 |
| league points | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 6.07 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | -0.46 |
| solidity v1 | 1.18 | -1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 29.50 | 25.43 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 1.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 0.72 |