← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Dec 21, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 42% | 2.27 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.26 |
| Casa Pia AC win | 28% | 3.48 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Casa Pia AC −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.60 |
| Over | 40% | 2.44 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Tiago Manso · CD Tondela |
| 31' | 🟨 | Renato Nhaga · Casa Pia AC |
| 53' | 🟨 | João Afonso · CD Tondela |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Ivan Cavaleiro · CD Tondela |
| 61' | ⚽ | Gaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia AC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Yassin Oukili · Casa Pia AC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Renato Nhaga · Casa Pia AC |
| 82' | 🟨 | André Geraldes · Casa Pia AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Casa Pia AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days | 173.00 | 142.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1406.74 | 1485.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.28 | -37.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -1.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 6.02 | 8.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 6.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | -0.67 |
| solidity v1 | -0.45 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 25.76 | 29.86 |
| state index | -0.65 | -1.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 0.61 |