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Gil Vicente FC 2–2 Rio Ave FC

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Dec 20, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Diogo Rosa, Portugal

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gil Vicente FC win54%1.78
Draw26%3.69
Rio Ave FC win20%4.93

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gil Vicente FC −0.554%1.83
Rio Ave FC −0.546%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.81
Over46%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

39'⚽Murilo Souza · Gil Vicente FC
41'⚽André Luiz · Rio Ave FC
54'🟨Joelson Fernandes · Gil Vicente FC
66'⚽ (og)Antonio Espigares · Rio Ave FC
79'🟨Jonathan Panzo · Rio Ave FC
90'🟨Rodrigo Rodrigues · Gil Vicente FC
90'🟨Hevertton Santos · Gil Vicente FC
90'🟨Cezary Miszta · Rio Ave FC
90'🟨Tamás Nikitscher · Rio Ave FC
90'🟨Tamás Nikitscher · Rio Ave FC
90'🟨Clayton · Rio Ave FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
23Shots3
5On target2
10Corners1
16Fouls16
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGil Vicente FCRio Ave FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
box share (last 5)0.510.69
cards avg (last 5)3.003.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio Cidade de Barcelos
90'🟥Tamás Nikitscher · Rio Ave FC
90'⚽Pablo Felipe · Gil Vicente FC
coach days
294.00
141.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.06
corner diff avg (last 5)3.40-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.605.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.873.26
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.10
dominance (last 5)0.540.40
elo1573.541518.92
elo momentum (last 5)-11.12-25.59
eye test v1-0.41-0.30
eye trend v1-0.510.29
first sub minute (last 10)55.5058.90
form points (last 5)6.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.35
keeper form v10.850.70
league points25.0016.00
league rank4.0011.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.006.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2083.40
possession avg (last 5)54.0050.00
rest days7.107.00
scorer concentration0.400.53
season ppg1.791.14
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-5.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.609.40
skill v10.230.20
solidity v10.81-0.35
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.60
squad age25.9424.46
state index0.09-0.37
sterile dominance v10.590.76
threat rate (last 10)0.270.19
threat rate (last 3)0.200.22
threat rate (last 5)0.220.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.051.65
xg for avg (last 5)1.011.12