← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Dec 21, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 36% | 2.68 |
| AVS win | 36% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| AVS +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.80 |
| Over | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ | Tomané · AVS |
| 43' | ⚽ | Babatunde Akinsola · AVS |
| 50' | ⚽ | Ze Vitor · CD Nacional |
| 57' | 🟨 | Tomané · AVS |
| 61' | ⚽ | Jesús Ramírez · CD Nacional |
| 73' | 🟥 | Rúben Semedo · AVS |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AVS | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves |
| coach days | 142.00 | 904.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1356.62 | 1459.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.90 | -4.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.74 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.60 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| league points | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 5.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.21 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | -0.86 |
| solidity v1 | -1.37 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.09 | 26.87 |
| state index | -1.60 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.90 | 2.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.08 |