← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Dec 14, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: David Rafael Oliveira da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Alverca win | 40% | 2.40 |
| FC Arouca win | 30% | 3.29 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| FC Alverca +0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.66 |
| Over | 42% | 2.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟥 | Sandro Lima · FC Alverca |
| 34' | 🟨 | Nabil Touaizi · FC Alverca |
| 41' | 🟨 | Kaiky Naves · FC Alverca |
| 59' | ⚽ | Hyun-ju Lee · FC Arouca |
| 68' | 🟨 | Tiago Esgaio · FC Arouca |
| 73' | 🟨 | Lincoln · FC Alverca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francisco Chissumba · FC Alverca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | FC Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| coach days | 439.00 | 135.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1483.60 | 1517.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -52.41 | 3.34 |
| eye test v1 | -1.49 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| league points | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | 0.63 |
| solidity v1 | -2.59 | 1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.60 | 24.25 |
| state index | -1.54 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.46 | 0.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.47 | 1.59 |