← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Mon, Dec 15, 08:45 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 81% | 1.15 |
| Draw | 13% | 7.58 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 6% | 17.44 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto −2 | 51% | 1.92 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora −2 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.55 |
| Under | 39% | 2.47 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto |
| 48' | 🟨 | Bernardo Schappo · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jan Bednarek · FC Porto |
| 60' | ⚽ | Abraham Marcus · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 63' | ⚽ | Francisco Moura · FC Porto |
| 65' | 🟨 | Abraham Marcus · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 65' | 🟨 | Renan Ribeiro · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 73' | ⚽ | Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jovane Cabral · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 90' | 🟨 | Otavio · CF Estrela da Amadora |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | CF Estrela da Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 197.00 | 167.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1846.86 | 1462.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.98 | 23.93 |
| eye test v1 | 1.06 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.80 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| league points | 37.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 4.03 | 8.11 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.85 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.19 | 0.94 |
| solidity v1 | 1.89 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.77 | 26.64 |
| state index | 1.44 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.73 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.90 |