← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Mon, Dec 15, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo Baixinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 40% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
| CD Tondela win | 30% | 3.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| CD Nacional −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.72 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Christian Marques · CD Tondela |
| 22' | 🟥 | Deivison Souza Brito · CD Nacional |
| 35' | 🟨 | Witi · CD Nacional |
| 49' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Maviram · CD Tondela |
| 54' | 🟨 | Léo Santos · CD Nacional |
| 54' | 🟨 | Jordan Siebatcheu · CD Tondela |
| 60' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Maviram · CD Tondela |
| 62' | 🟨 | Juan Rodríguez · CD Tondela |
| 66' | 🟨 | Hugo Félix · CD Tondela |
| 68' | ⚽ | Ze Vitor · CD Nacional |
| 89' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Sousa · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paulinho Bóia · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Aurélio · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟥 | Brayan Medina · CD Tondela |
| 90' | ⚽ | Paulinho Bóia · CD Nacional |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Jesús Ramírez · CD Nacional |
| coach days | 898.00 | 167.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1448.77 | 1417.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.80 | 4.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.50 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 7.98 | 7.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 0.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.08 | -0.70 |
| solidity v1 | -0.83 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.43 | 25.35 |
| state index | -0.67 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.91 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.07 | 1.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 1.01 |