← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Dec 13, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Marcio Torres, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 46% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.14 |
| Casa Pia AC win | 24% | 4.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC +0.5 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Gil Vicente FC +0.5 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.50 |
| Over | 36% | 2.73 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Joelson Fernandes · Gil Vicente FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Sebastián Pérez · Casa Pia AC |
| 38' | ⚽ | Antonio Espigares · Gil Vicente FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Kelian Nsona · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Sousa · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafael Brito · Casa Pia AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 3 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Casa Pia AC | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior |
| coach days | 134.00 | 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1484.86 | 1574.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.17 | 8.96 |
| eye test v1 | -1.24 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 9.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | 0.17 |
| solidity v1 | -1.50 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 30.90 | 26.21 |
| state index | -1.35 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.02 | 1.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.31 |