← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Dec 7, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Luís Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 75% | 1.29 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.00 |
| CD Tondela win | 9% | 11.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto +1.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| CD Tondela +1.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.76 |
| Under | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Siphephelo Sithole · CD Tondela |
| 48' | ⚽ | Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto |
| 49' | ⚽ | William Gomes · FC Porto |
| 60' | 🟨 | Tiago Manso · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francisco Moura · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days | 159.00 | 189.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1421.26 | 1841.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.95 | 19.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 48.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| league points | 9.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 2.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | 0.40 |
| solidity v1 | -0.14 | 1.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.83 | 24.47 |
| state index | -0.61 | 1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 0.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.27 |