← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Dec 7, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 50% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.56 |
| FC Arouca win | 23% | 4.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca −0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.76 |
| Over | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟥 | Alex Pinto · FC Arouca |
| 29' | ⚽ | Kikas · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 34' | ⚽ | Abraham Marcus · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 45' | 🟨 | Oumar Ngom · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 51' | 🟨 | Espen Van Ee · FC Arouca |
| 51' | 🟨 | Naïs Djouahra · FC Arouca |
| 59' | ⚽ | Taichi Fukui · FC Arouca |
| 68' | 🟥 | Taichi Fukui · FC Arouca |
| 85' | 🟨 | Pedro Santos · FC Arouca |
| 89' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Pinho · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 90' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CF Estrela da Amadora | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio José Gomes |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 159.00 | 432.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1447.48 | 1498.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.17 | -37.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -1.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.60 |
| league points | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.73 | -0.79 |
| solidity v1 | -0.07 | -2.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 25.26 | 25.51 |
| state index | -0.47 | -1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 2.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 0.50 |