← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Dec 6, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Diogo Rosa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 47% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.05 |
| Casa Pia AC win | 21% | 4.71 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC −0.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| CD Santa Clara −0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 69% | 1.42 |
| Over | 31% | 3.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Duplexe Tchamba · Casa Pia AC |
| 11' | ⚽ | Frederico Venâncio · CD Santa Clara |
| 25' | 🟨 | Serginho · CD Santa Clara |
| 35' | 🟨 | Adriano Firmino · CD Santa Clara |
| 40' | 🟨 | Sidney Lima · CD Santa Clara |
| 73' | 🟨 | Xander Severina · Casa Pia AC |
| 87' | 🟨 | José Tavares · CD Santa Clara |
| 88' | 🟨 | Sebastián Pérez · Casa Pia AC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jérémy Livolant · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diogo Calila · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 23 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | Casa Pia AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| coach days | 889.00 | 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1534.06 | 1492.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.75 | -39.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| league points | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.51 | -0.41 |
| solidity v1 | 0.99 | -1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 29.74 | 29.82 |
| state index | -0.06 | -1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 1.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 0.76 |