← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Dec 7, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Helder Malheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 44% | 2.27 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 |
| Moreirense FC win | 28% | 3.48 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Moreirense FC −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.78 |
| Over | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Diogo Travassos · Moreirense FC |
| 16' | 🟨 | Landerson · Moreirense FC |
| 19' | ⚽ | Patrick de Paula · GD Estoril Praia |
| 29' | 🟨 | André Lacximicant · GD Estoril Praia |
| 54' | ⚽ | Ricard Sánchez · GD Estoril Praia |
| 58' | ⚽ | Yanis Begraoui · GD Estoril Praia |
| 62' | ⚽ | Afonso Assis · Moreirense FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Alan · Moreirense FC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ricard Sánchez · GD Estoril Praia |
| 76' | 🟨 | Afonso Assis · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | ⚽ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| Luís Semedo · Moreirense FC |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 524.00 | 159.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1547.61 | 1571.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.06 | -4.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.80 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| league points | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 6.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | -0.40 |
| solidity v1 | 0.58 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.57 | 27.30 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.81 | 1.02 |