← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Dec 6, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Bessa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 41% | 2.38 |
| AVS win | 30% | 3.18 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AVS +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Rio Ave FC +0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.81 |
| Over | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Andreas Ndoj · Rio Ave FC |
| 30' | ⚽ | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Carlos Ponck · AVS |
| 49' | 🟨 | Jaume Grau · AVS |
| 50' | ⚽ | Óscar Perea · AVS |
| 56' | 🟨 | Francisco Petrasso · Rio Ave FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jaume Grau · AVS |
| 60' | 🟥 | Jaume Grau · AVS |
| 64' | 🟨 | Nelson Abbey · Rio Ave FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Leonardo Rivas · AVS |
| 83' | 🟨 | Rúben Semedo · AVS |
| 89' | 🟨 | Georgios Liavas · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cristian Castro · AVS |
| 90' | 🟨 | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Karem Zoabi · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AVS | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves |
| coach days |
| 127.00 |
| 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1364.99 | 1520.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.65 | -4.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.20 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.91 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | -0.01 |
| solidity v1 | -1.13 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.06 | 24.38 |
| state index | -1.45 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.95 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.08 |