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AVS 1–2 Rio Ave FC

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Dec 6, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Bessa, Portugal

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rio Ave FC win41%2.38
AVS win30%3.18
Draw28%3.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AVS +0.2553%1.86
Rio Ave FC +0.2547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.81
Over46%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Andreas Ndoj · Rio Ave FC
30'⚽Clayton · Rio Ave FC
44'🟨Carlos Ponck · AVS
49'🟨Jaume Grau · AVS
50'⚽Óscar Perea · AVS
56'🟨Francisco Petrasso · Rio Ave FC
60'🟨Jaume Grau · AVS
60'🟥Jaume Grau · AVS
64'🟨Nelson Abbey · Rio Ave FC
77'🟨Leonardo Rivas · AVS
83'🟨Rúben Semedo · AVS
89'🟨Georgios Liavas · Rio Ave FC
90'🟨Cristian Castro · AVS
90'🟨Clayton · Rio Ave FC
90'🟨Karem Zoabi · Rio Ave FC
90'⚽ (pen)Clayton · Rio Ave FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
9Shots17
5On target8
3Corners11
16Fouls16
6Yellow cards6
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAVSRio Ave FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.25
box share (last 5)0.670.69
cards avg (last 5)2.003.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio Clube Desportivo das Aves
coach days
127.00
127.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.80-3.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.406.20
corners for avg (last 5)2.603.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.962.13
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.08
dominance (last 5)0.430.37
elo1364.991520.75
elo momentum (last 5)-20.65-4.96
eye test v1-0.46-0.35
eye trend v10.53-0.21
first sub minute (last 10)48.2058.20
form points (last 5)2.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
keeper form v10.640.67
league points3.0013.00
league rank18.0012.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet13.004.00
matches since win13.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6083.00
possession avg (last 5)46.6046.40
rest days7.916.10
scorer concentration0.250.50
season ppg0.251.08
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.60-6.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.408.60
skill v1-0.49-0.01
solidity v1-1.13-0.02
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.203.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.40
squad age26.0624.38
state index-1.45-0.21
sterile dominance v1-0.040.53
threat rate (last 10)0.230.18
threat rate (last 3)0.270.15
threat rate (last 5)0.230.18
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.951.50
xg for avg (last 5)0.861.08