← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Nov 29, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: David Rafael Oliveira da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 40% | 2.42 |
| Moreirense FC win | 31% | 3.23 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| FC Famalicão +0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.74 |
| Over | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Tom Van De Looi · FC Famalicão |
| 21' | ⚽ | Yassir Zabiri · FC Famalicão |
| 47' | ⚽ | Guilherme Schettine · Moreirense FC |
| 57' | ⚽ | Gustavo Sá · FC Famalicão |
| 73' | 🟨 | Maracás · Moreirense FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Justin De Haas · FC Famalicão |
| 75' | 🟨 | Alan · Moreirense FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Pinheiro · FC Famalicão |
| 80' | ⚽ | Dinis Pinto · Moreirense FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Lazar Carević · FC Famalicão |
| 88' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 22 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| 88' | 🟨 | Vasco Sousa · Moreirense FC |
| 88' | 🟥 | Maracás · Moreirense FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Mathias De Amorim · FC Famalicão |
| coach days | 151.00 | 363.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1571.82 | 1625.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.92 | 9.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.88 |
| league points | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 19.79 | 19.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | 0.53 |
| solidity v1 | -0.60 | 1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.94 | 23.71 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 0.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.77 |