← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Nov 29, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo Baixinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC win | 37% | 2.62 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.03 |
| FC Alverca win | 31% | 3.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC +0 | 54% | 1.79 |
| FC Alverca +0 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.55 |
| Over | 38% | 2.52 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Cassiano · Casa Pia AC |
| 45' | 🟨 | André Geraldes · Casa Pia AC |
| 45' | 🟨 | José Fonte · Casa Pia AC |
| 45' | 🟥 | Patrick Sequeira · Casa Pia AC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Bastien Meupiyou · FC Alverca |
| 72' | 🟨 | Gaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia AC |
| 76' | ⚽ | Lincoln · FC Alverca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marko Milovanović · FC Alverca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alexsandro Amorim · FC Alverca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Davy Gui · FC Alverca |
| 90' | ⚽ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 10 |
| 0 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Casa Pia AC | FC Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior |
| coach days | 120.00 | 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1510.30 | 1492.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.18 | 10.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 59.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | — |
| league points | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 19.79 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | 0.34 |
| solidity v1 | -1.31 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.78 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 29.00 | 24.65 |
| state index | -0.91 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.34 |