← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Nov 30, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 79% | 1.20 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.82 |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 6% | 15.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −2 | 54% | 1.78 |
| FC Porto −2 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.56 |
| Under | 39% | 2.49 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | William Gomes · FC Porto |
| 12' | 🟨 | Jordan Holsgrove · GD Estoril Praia |
| 38' | 🟨 | Ricard Sánchez · GD Estoril Praia |
| 42' | 🟨 | Francisco Moura · FC Porto |
| 53' | 🟨 | Joel Robles · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| coach days | 182.00 | 517.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1838.85 | 1549.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.26 | 27.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.70 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.59 |
| league points | 31.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 3.11 | 23.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.82 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | 0.29 |
| solidity v1 | 1.85 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.01 | 25.71 |
| state index | 1.52 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.65 |