← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Fri, Nov 7, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 49% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
| FC Arouca win | 25% | 4.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| GD Estoril Praia −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.91 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Taichi Fukui · FC Arouca |
| 10' | ⚽ (og) | Taichi Fukui · GD Estoril Praia |
| 17' | 🟨 | Nodar Lominadze · GD Estoril Praia |
| 31' | ⚽ | Naïs Djouahra · FC Arouca |
| 43' | ⚽ | Kévin Boma · GD Estoril Praia |
| 51' | ⚽ | Jordan Holsgrove · GD Estoril Praia |
| 74' | ⚽ | Naïs Djouahra · FC Arouca |
| 75' | 🟨 | Felix Bacher · GD Estoril Praia |
| 86' | ⚽ | João Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antef Tsoungui · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| Omar Fayed · FC Arouca |
| coach days | 494.00 | 402.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1542.44 | 1515.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.74 | -19.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | -1.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| league points | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 6.09 | 5.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | -0.43 |
| solidity v1 | 0.57 | -1.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.09 | 25.74 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 2.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 0.66 |