← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Nov 9, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 42% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.25 |
| CD Nacional win | 28% | 3.36 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora −0.25 | 50% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.66 |
| Over | 42% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Guilherme Montóia · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 26' | 🟨 | Bernardo Schappo · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 40' | ⚽ | José Gomes · CD Nacional |
| 45' | 🟨 | Léo Santos · CD Nacional |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Sidny Lopes Cabral · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 74' | 🟨 | Atanas Chernev · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 87' | 🟨 | Martim Gustavo Watts · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francisco Gonçalves · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chiheb Labidi · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CF Estrela da Amadora | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio José Gomes |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 131.00 | 862.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1450.48 | 1456.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.04 | 17.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.70 |
| league points | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.90 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -0.02 |
| solidity v1 | 0.03 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.08 | 27.00 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.62 |