← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Nov 1, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Nogueira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 42% | 2.32 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.29 |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 29% | 3.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Rio Ave FC −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.89 |
| Over | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟥 | Jonathan Panzo · Rio Ave FC |
| 27' | 🟨 | Jordan Holsgrove · GD Estoril Praia |
| 40' | ⚽ | Yanis Begraoui · GD Estoril Praia |
| 45' | ⚽ | Yanis Begraoui · GD Estoril Praia |
| 63' | ⚽ | André Lacximicant · GD Estoril Praia |
| 68' | 🟨 | Cezary Miszta · Rio Ave FC |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Yanis Begraoui · GD Estoril Praia |
| 76' | 🟨 | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 2 | Shots | 24 |
| 0 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | — | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | — | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | — | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |
| coach days | 92.00 | 488.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1553.69 | 1528.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.09 | -7.66 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | — |
| league points | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 6.94 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | -0.10 |
| solidity v1 | -0.46 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.47 | 25.68 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 1.15 |