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Rio Ave FC 0–4 GD Estoril Praia

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Nov 1, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Nogueira, Portugal

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rio Ave FC win42%2.32
Draw29%3.29
GD Estoril Praia win29%3.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
GD Estoril Praia −0.2551%1.93
Rio Ave FC −0.2549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.89
Over49%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟥Jonathan Panzo · Rio Ave FC
27'🟨Jordan Holsgrove · GD Estoril Praia
40'⚽Yanis Begraoui · GD Estoril Praia
45'⚽Yanis Begraoui · GD Estoril Praia
63'⚽André Lacximicant · GD Estoril Praia
68'🟨Cezary Miszta · Rio Ave FC
70'⚽ (pen)Yanis Begraoui · GD Estoril Praia
76'🟨Clayton · Rio Ave FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
2Shots24
0On target6
0Corners6
10Fouls14
2Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRio Ave FCGD Estoril Praia
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)—0.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)—0.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)—0.71
cards avg (last 5)4.603.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube
coach days92.00488.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.40-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)8.605.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.082.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.12
dominance (last 5)0.290.47
elo1553.691528.23
elo momentum (last 5)24.09-7.66
eye test v1-1.00-0.31
eye trend v1-0.04-0.18
first sub minute (last 10)57.1050.90
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.73—
league points11.007.00
league rank11.0015.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.009.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2076.00
possession avg (last 5)42.2053.20
rest days6.946.10
scorer concentration0.420.25
season ppg1.220.78
shot diff avg (last 5)-11.40-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)7.6010.40
skill v1-0.58-0.10
solidity v1-0.46-0.04
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.80
squad age25.4725.68
state index0.12-0.29
sterile dominance v10.310.30
threat rate (last 10)0.210.22
threat rate (last 3)0.190.19
threat rate (last 5)0.170.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.761.45
xg for avg (last 5)0.771.15