← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Nov 2, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Pedro Ramalho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 38% | 2.58 |
| Moreirense FC win | 33% | 2.96 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Moreirense FC +0 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.71 |
| Over | 44% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Guilherme Schettine · Moreirense FC |
| 32' | 🟨 | Tiago Esgaio · FC Arouca |
| 36' | ⚽ | Guilherme Schettine · Moreirense FC |
| 47' | 🟨 | Diogo Travassos · Moreirense FC |
| 65' | 🟨 | David Simão · FC Arouca |
| 80' | 🟨 | Taichi Fukui · FC Arouca |
| 88' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| coach days | 397.00 | 124.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1531.48 | 1559.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.13 | -0.96 |
| eye test v1 | -1.13 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| league points | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.94 | 5.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | 0.12 |
| solidity v1 | -1.98 | -0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.90 | 27.36 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.54 | 1.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.59 | 1.24 |