← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Nov 1, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Helder Malheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC win | 42% | 2.29 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.03 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 27% | 3.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Casa Pia AC −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.58 |
| Over | 39% | 2.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Cassiano · Casa Pia AC |
| 36' | ⚽ | Kikas · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Sidny Lopes Cabral · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 48' | ⚽ | Iyad Mohamed · Casa Pia AC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Otavio · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 61' | 🟨 | Patrick Sequeira · Casa Pia AC |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Sidny Lopes Cabral · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 67' | ⚽ | Paulo Moreira · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 74' | 🟨 | Paulo Moreira · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 75' | 🟨 | José Fonte · Casa Pia AC |
| 82' |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 20 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Casa Pia AC | CF Estrela da Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior |
| ⚽ |
| Sidny Lopes Cabral · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 85' | ⚽ | José Fonte · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alex Sola · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 92.00 | 123.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1523.42 | 1429.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.47 | -12.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.85 |
| league points | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 6.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | 0.13 |
| solidity v1 | -0.20 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.81 | 25.74 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.14 |