← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Nov 2, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 39% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.18 |
| AVS win | 30% | 3.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AVS +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| CD Tondela +0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Tomané · AVS |
| 14' | ⚽ | Rony Lopes · CD Tondela |
| 38' | 🟨 | Brayan Medina · CD Tondela |
| 44' | ⚽ | Sidi Bane · AVS |
| 57' | 🟨 | Hélder Tavares · CD Tondela |
| 62' | ⚽ | Óscar Perea · AVS |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Maranhão · CD Tondela |
| 72' | 🟨 | Diogo Spencer · AVS |
| 74' | 🟨 | Maranhão · CD Tondela |
| 87' | 🟨 | Nenê · AVS |
| 88' | 🟨 | Siphephelo Sithole · |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AVS | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves |
| 89' | 🟨 | Leonardo Rivas · AVS |
| coach days | 93.00 | 124.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1366.52 | 1411.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.00 | -4.34 |
| eye test v1 | -1.17 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.00 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| league points | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.94 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 0.11 | 0.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | 0.27 |
| solidity v1 | -1.38 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.76 | 26.15 |
| state index | -1.73 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.92 | 1.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.70 | 1.55 |